EC474 Seminar: Economic Demography

EC474 - Seminar: Economic Demography
Applications of microeconomic theory to demographic behavior in developing countries. Topics include fertility, mortality, population policy, migration, health, aging, human capital, time allocation, and family structure. Emphasis on analyzing research and preparing empirical analyses of household surveys using the Stata statistical package.

Course held on: --T-R--  Building/Room:DIAM  322
Brown, Philip H.
phbrown DIAM 351 Office Hours: Tu-Th: 10:30 a.m.-12:30 p.m.

Course Description | Course Information | Evaluation | Detailed Schedule


Course Description
Economic demography is the analysis of the economic forces that influence population and the demographic factors that affect economic outcomes. Tools include microeconomic theory, demographic theory, and econometrics. In Fall 2008, this course will focus demographic change in China and Chile. Topics of emphasis include:
  • childhood and education
  • work and income
  • social security and healthy aging 

Students will read and critique a number of recent studies on these topics undertaken by demographers and economists. Students will also undertake and present their own empirical analyses in economic demography using microdata from household surveys. A significant portion of the class is thus dedicated to learning Stata, a powerful tool for statistical analysis. Regular classes will follow a traditional conference format with a formal presentation and general discussion to follow.

 

Course Information
Prerequisites
All of the readings from this class are drawn from academic journals intended for audiences who have studied at the M.A. or Ph.D. level.  As such, Microeconomic Theory (EC223), Econometrics (EC393), and senior standing as an economics major are absolutely required for enrollment in this class. Students who have not mastered the relevant tools and concepts from Microeconomic Theory and Econometrics should anticipate allocating a great deal of time to following the readings and assignments.

Course Organization
The course meets on Tuesdays and Thursdays.  With few exceptions, Tuesday classes are dedicated to reading and discussing recent articles in economic demography.  These classes begin with two assigned students offering brief comments (10 min.) to clarify the relevant econometric model used in that week's reading assignment.  The rest of the class will then follow a standard conference format in which the first student formally presents the assigned reading as if it was his or her own research paper (20 min), generally drawing from outside materials to complement the reading.  A second student then serves as a formal discussant of the paper (15 min), offering a critical analysis of the paper and offering specific suggestions for improvement.  The instructor will then lead the class in a more general discussion of the the merits and shortcomings of the econometric approach and the lessons from the reading.  The presentation and discussion should employ PowerPoint or a similar technology, although the discussion of the model need not do so.

The Thursday classes are dedicated to replicating the econometric techniques described in the articles using Stata.  The instructor will lead students through a lab to familiarize class participants with Stata and with empirical microeconomic analysis.

Required Readings
Readings are drawn from academic journals in the fields of economics and demography.  The readings are non-trivial, and students should anticipate spending several hours on each of them.  Either one or two readings will be assigned each week.

Data
The survey microdata for the Stata labs and homework assignments are drawn from the following sources:
  • China CLHLS: China Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (Zeng, Vaupel, Xiao, and Liu 2000)
  • China GSCF: Gansu Survey of Children and Families (Hannum, Park, and Zhang 2000)
  • Chile CASEN: Encuesta de Caracterización Socioeconómica (Ministerio de Planificación y Cooperación, Chile 2003)
  • Other sources as needed
Students will be provided with a CD-ROM containing these data sets as well as data sets from Brazil, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Israel, Japan, Malawi, South Africa, Uganda, and the United States.
Any of these data sets may be used for the Original Research Projects for this class. However, some of these data are proprietary, so they may not be used for other projects without obtaining permission from the instructor.  Survey questionnaires and/or code books are also included on the data CD.

About Stata
Stata is a popular analysis tool among research economists, econometricians, demographers, and other social scientists.  Features that contribute to Stata's appeal include its ease of use, its inclusion of cutting-edge econometric techniques, its speed, its thorough documentation, and its adaptability for countless applications in the social sciences.  Stata version 10 is available to students in the Quantitative Research Lab. Students who are interested in learning more about Stata or in purchasing personal copies of Stata may visit the Stata website.

 

Evaluation
Grades are calculated by a weighted average of scores received on in-class presentations/discussions, written responses to assigned readings, Stata homework assignments, and an Original Research Paper in economic demography. There are no examinations. Participation in class discussions is also expected; in cases where a student is on the margin between two final grades, consistent and constructive class participation may make a positive contribution toward the final grade.

Presentations, Discussions, and Models (10%)
An important objective of this seminar is to give students practice in reading and evaluating research in economics and economic demography.  As noted above, each regular class will include a brief presentation of the model used in the weekly reading, a formal presentation of the article, and a formal discussion of the article.  Two students will be assigned for each paper, a presenter and a discussant.  They are jointly responsible for presenting the model.

Grading: 5-point scale

Formal Presentation of Econometric Models
Six students will be responsible for formally presenting the econometric model(s) from the assigned articles(s) in class. Presentation dates will be assigned on September 11.

These presentations should cover the following topics in no more than 10 minutes:
  • Statistical properties of the model (if appropriate)
  • Assumptions underlying the model
  • An intuitive example
  • Advantages of the model relative to alternative models
Although the assigned articles make use of econometric models, they do not always discuss these topics.  As such, presenters should draw from outside materials.

Formal Presentation of Assigned Readings
Six students will be responsible for formally presenting the assigned article(s) in class. Presentation dates will be assigned on September 11.

Each presentation has a strict time limit of 20 minutes, during which time the presenter should address the following questions:    
  • What problem/question is being addressed?
  • Why is this problem/question important? Is it of policy importance? Does it solve a puzzle in the discipline? Are new methodologies being used to derive solutions/answers? That is, how does this paper contribute to the economic literature?
  • What is the central hypothesis?  How is the hypothesis being tested?
  • What data are being used to address the problem/question? Describe them.
  • What are the paper's main results? Compare the results to those found in other studies.
  • What conclusions may be derived? What are the main policy implications?
This format closely follows the presentation format employed at academic conferences.  The instructor will provide concrete example of a formal paper presentation during the fourth day of class.

Formal Discussion of Assigned Readings
Six students will be responsible for formally discussing the assigned article(s) in class. Discussion dates will be assigned on September 11.

Each discussion has a strict time limit of 15 minutes, during which time the presenter should address the following questions:    

  • What is the central problem/question being addressed? What is the central hypothesis? How is the hypothesis tested? What are the main findings? What are the major contributions of the article?
  • Are there any limitations in the data, methodology, data analysis, policy implications, and/or conclusion?
  • How could the article be improved? If appropriate, repeat the analysis with corrected results
  • May the results be generalized to other settings? Explain or provide an example
This format closely follows the discussion format employed at academic conferences.  The instructor will provide concrete example of a paper discussion during the fourth day of class.

Written Response to Assigned Readings (20%)
The remaining class time is reserved for general discussion of the assigned articles. The discussion will revolve around questions and insights raised by students in short written responses to each article.

This short response is required of each student except for the two presenters.  It should address the same set of questions as the formal discussion, although there is no need to replicate or generalize results:
  • What is the central problem/question being addressed? What is the central hypothesis? How is the hypothesis tested? What are the main findings? What are the major contributions of the article?
  • Are there any limitations in the data, methodology, data analysis, policy implications, and/or conclusion?
  • How could the article be improved?
  • May the results be generalized to other settings?
The response must be at least 600 words in length and not longer than 800 words in length.  Grading will be based on evidence that students have carefully internalized the reading and understand the implications of the methodologies and conclusions.

The written response is due at the instructor's office via hardcopy each Monday at 8:00 AM.  Late responses will not be accepted. 

Grading: 5-point scale

Stata Homework Assignments (20%)
Students are responsible for completing eight Stata homework assignments. The assignments are based closely on the articles discussed each Tuesday and on the Stata techniques demonstrated in lab each Thursday.  They are designed to strengthen students' empirical research abilities by providing hands-on experience with data analysis.  Many of the homework assignments are time consuming; plan accordingly.

The Stata homework assignments are due at the beginning of class each Tuesday.

Stata homework assignments that are up to 24 hours late will be penalized by one grade. After 2:30 PM on Wednesday, Stata homework assignments will not receive credit. 

Grading: 5-point scale

Original Research Paper
Each student is responsible for writing and presenting an original research paper using data from household surveys.  Students are encouraged to focus on questions related to economic demography topics discussed in class; each student should feel free to be creative, however, taking advantage of the wide variety of variables that are included in household surveys. 

Students may use any of the data sets used in the Stata labs; students may also use alternative household survey data with permission of the instructor.  Please note that students who wish to receive credit toward a major or minor in East Asian Studies must complete an Original Research Paper using data from that region.

Papers must include an appropriate review of previous theoretical and empirical findings.  The data analysis must be undertaken in Stata and the paper should include carefully constructed figures and tables that provide support for the thesis.  The papers covered in class provide excellent examples of empirical research undertaken by economists and demographers.

There are three steps in completing the research paper:

Research Proposal, October 2
The research proposal is a detailed plan for the original research paper.  The proposal should begin by clearly identifying a problem or question and explaining why the problem/question is important. Indicate the hypothesis that will be tested and describe the key preliminary variables.  Include figures to motivate the question and to explain the relationships between variables.  Finally, propose the econometric model for use in the paper. Make a 15-minute appointment to discuss the research proposal with the instructor on October 3.

Student Research Conference, Sunday, November 23
Students will present their Original Research Papers to seminar participants and invited guests at the Student Research Seminar.  Each student will also provide formal comments for one other conference presentation.

Formal Presentation of Original Research Paper (10%)
The 20-minute presentation will follow the format described under "Formal Presentation of Assigned Readings" above.  The grade will reflect the presentation as well as the quality of the paper itself.

Grading: 5-point scale

Formal Discussion of Original Research Paper (10%)
In addition to presenting their own research, students will formally discuss another seminar participant's original research paper.  This 15-minute presentation will follow the format outlined under "Formal Discussion of Assigned Readings" above. Discussants are also required to provide written comments to the presenter and to the instructor at the time of the discussion. Comments generated during the seminar are intended to serve as the basis for paper revisions.  The grade will reflect both the discussion and the quality of the written comments.

Grading: 5-point scale
 
Original Research Paper, December 4 (30%)
Final revisions of the original research paper are due at the beginning of class.

Click here for more specific guidelines for writing the research paper.

Click here for the metric used to grade the research paper.

Academic Honesty
Students are expected to adhere to Colby's policies on academic honesty. In accordance with these policies, students who plagiarize or cheat will be dismissed from the class with an F. Any such incidents will be reported to the Dean of Students and may result in suspension or expulsion.
 

Detailed Schedule

September 4
Introduction to Economic Demography

September 9
Introduction to Demographic Concepts (no write-up)
Becker, “Nobel Lecture: The Economic Way of Looking at Behavior”
Johnson, “Economic Policy Implications of World Demographic Change” parts 1 - 3

September 11
LAB #1 – Introduction to Stata

September 16
Descriptive Analysis – Healthy Aging
Zeng, Vaupel, Xiao, Zhang, and Liu, “Sociodemographic and Health Profiles of the Oldest Old in China”

September 18
LAB #2 – Descriptive Statistics and Data Cleaning

September 23
Nonparametric Analysis – Income
Contreras, “Poverty and Inequality in a Rapid Growth Economy: Chile 1990-1996”

September 25
LAB #3 – Graphs and Figures

September 30
Ordinary Least Squares – Healthy Aging, Income
Light and Ureta, “Living Arrangements, Employment Status, and Economic Well-Being of Mothers: Evidence from Brazil, Chile, and the U.S.”

October 2
LAB #4 – Introduction to Regression Analysis
WRITTEN RESEARCH PROPOSAL DUE

October 7
Interaction Terms – Education
Brown, “Parental Education and Investment in Children’s Human Capital in Rural China”

October 9
LAB #5 – Dummy Regressors and Interaction Terms

October 14
Fall Break

October 16
INDIVIDUAL LAB WORK

October 21
Probit Models – Healthy Aging
Roman, “Living Arrangements and Subjective Well-Being of Elderly in China and Japan”

October 23
Ordered and Multinomial Logit – Healthy Aging
Tierney, “Religion and Subjective Well-Being Among China’s Elderly Population”

October 28
LAB #6 – Dummy Dependent Variables, Categorical Regressors and Regressands
Guest lecture (7:00 PM): Dai Qing, Title TBA

October 30
INDIVIDUAL LAB WORK

November 4
Tobit Models – Education
Stair, Rephann, and Heberling, “Demand for Public Education: Evidence from a Rural School District”

November 6
INDIVIDUAL LAB WORK

November 11
IV Estimation – Migration
Brown, "Dowry and Intrahousehold Bargaining in Rural China"

November 13
LAB #7 – Tobit Models for Corner Solutions and Censored Data
LAB #8 – Instrumental Variables

November 18
Education, Income, and Healthy Aging
Buckley, Denton, Robb, and Spencer, “Healthy Aging at Older Ages: Are Income and Education Important?”
PAPERS DUE TO YOUR DISCUSSANT

November 20
INDIVIDUAL LAB WORK

November 23 (SUNDAY)
ALL DAY STUDENT RESEARCH CONFERENCE

November 25
INDIVIDUAL LAB WORK

November 27
THANKSGIVING DAY

December 2
INDIVIDUAL LAB WORK

December 4
FINAL PAPERS DUE

Note: This schedule is subject to frequent revision.  Check the course website frequently for updates.