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We ran this model three
separate times, once using high estimates, once using low estimates, and
once using our best estimates for each variable in the equasion. The resulting high and low estimates
of phosphorus loading (W) and phosphorus concentration (P), represent the
possible range, while our best estimate for W and P represent the value
within that range, that we feel most accuratly represents what is actually
happening in China Lake.
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According to our best
estimate, the phosphorus loading model predicted that the amount of
phosphorus entering the lake from external sources was 2,447 kg/yr. This would result in a concentration
of phosphorus within the lake of 10.1 ppb.
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However there is also a
large amount of phosphorus entering the lake from the sediments. When phosphorus from both sediment
release and external sources were accounted for, the model predicted that
4,843 kg/yr of phosphorus entered the lake, nearly twice as much as when
only external sources were included.
This results in a concentration of phosphorus of 18.8 ppb, according
to our best estimate.
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These concentrations are
very similar to the phosphorus concentrations observed over the past summer
and fall. Our best estimate of
the phosphorus concentration from the model (18.8 ppb) is exactly the same
as the mean phosphorus
concentration of surface, mid, and epicore samples taken over the summer and
fall. Our high estimate
corresponds with the mean phosphorus concentration of all samples, including
the extremely high bottom samples.
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