Assuming that the population in the watershed remains stable, household size continues to decrease (which is expected), and more than half of residential development occurs in rural areas, we project that there could be about 100-125 new houses built in in the watershed in the next 25 years. However, this does not take the newly proposed zoning codes into consideration.
	To understand what this means for water quality, we used our phosphorus model to predict how much total phosphorus would enter the lake at different rates of developments.
	- If no new houses were built in the next 25 years, our best estimate for total phosphorus in the    lake is 15.3 ppb.
	- If 100-125 new houses are built, total phosphorus would increase almost 1ppb up to 16.2.
	- If high development occurs and 200 new houses are built, phosphorus will again increase up to    17.6ppb.
	With or without development, both phosphorus estimates fall within the range where we would expect to see algal blooms in the lake.
	With the new conservation zone, development would be more limited and even less phosphorus would enter the lake. However, the new conservation plan is just one factor to consider when thinking about how to improve water quality because even without development phosphorus levels are a still high enough to cause algal blooms. Either way, there are trade-offs between development and other remediation techniques which Megan will discuss next in our recommendations for the further protection of Pattee Pond.