The Future of Women
(An Excerpt)
Change swirls around us as we
move into the coming century, the next millennium Official focus falls on
political, economic and technological change but fails to take into account one
of the biggest changes of the waning twentieth century, the changed status of
women We mean not just their legal and economic status--which can he altered
with pen strokes--but also their own views of themselves, of their rights and
their potential.
If nothing better than linear progress prevails, its glacial--not gliding--pace
will subvert hopes for equality for many generations Young women are already
voicing discontent with their lives If they can't succeed in business or
government often they blame themselves instead of circumstances, a pattern too
typical of women After all, they reason, equal opportunity laws are in place
(at least for now) in most Western countries; obviously some women are making
it; why not them?
A more sophisticated analysis drives them to step back and ask whether success
on these terms is worth it. Do they really want to be one of the boys in an
unchanged boys' world, or do they want genuine change? In anger and
frustration, they drop out, in the belief (not entirely unfounded) that they
can at least change their own lives--be a self-employed entrepreneur, be a
full-time mom--without taking on the thankless task of reforming an intractable
system.
Everything--again, technology, the global economy, and global political
structures--is changing, most of it quickly. Everything, that is, except the
creep toward sexual equality. Optimistically, women greet each small
incremental change, each "first woman to" event as assurance that they're on
the right path, they'll eventually get there But incremental changes for women,
important as they are to individuals, are not structural changes. Sometimes
even negative change is interpreted as merely the last gasp of the resistant
old order. Women often see what they want to see and force fact to support
hope. Two Steps Forward, Two Steps Back.
The facts do not easily lend themselves to hope. The facts are that women do
not get equal pay for equal work, though economic and social trends have forced
women to become breadwinners all over the world, for some a novelty, for most
the same old situation Those breadwinners still work the "second shift" at
home. And now they face a future including their old age, with no guarantees
for their security. Nearly everywhere, women as a group are getting poorer
relative to men. We sometimes wonder whether the greatest number of have-nots
in the age of information will be women--of all colors,.ages, and persuasions.
Backlash.
Then again, the portents also suggest that the future could bifurcate wildly:
everyone faces the potential for enormous conflict and savage repression,
events just as possible as the glacial path to equality. Complex systems can
often become chaotic.
But--reimagine a glacier. Glaciers are deceptive. Beneath their immense, silent
frozen stillness, their apparent inertia, rivers of ice secretly recarve, even
destroy, the soil, the rocks, the mountains. A glacier's very weight and size
feeds on itself and accelerates growth--the immense Kutiah Glacier in northern
India is said to have advanced at times by 360 feet a day. When the glacier
disappears (and on a geological time scale, that can happen swiftly) the land
beneath it emerges unrecognizable, utterly transformed. New flora and fauna
find homes here; the weather, even the climate, changes. Sea levels rise and
Iowlands flood. It's a different planet.
And so in this hook we have also boldly imagined the heretofore unimaginable--a
Golden Age of Equality. "Equality" does not mean "the same" in this scenario:
indeed, everything is different, nothing is the same, not men and women, not
the lives they lead. This scenario is neither far-fetched nor implausible. We
offer it here as a possibility for positive change. On the other hand, that new
postglacial landscape might push women into lives that are distinctly apart
from men's, in the scenario we call Separate--and Doing Fine, Thanks!
No, the issues aren't resolved yet, and they aren't going away. We owe it to
ourselves to consider alternative futures, based on what we know and what we
can project from that. This exercise will permit us to examine our mental maps,
our assumptions, and allows us to revise them and decide the courses of action
we want to take.
In this book we've taken a global view, because we believe the destinies of
women everywhere are linked. Our scenarios often focus on the United States
because, for better or worse, the United States is to the world as California
is to the nation: change happens first in California, then in the United
States, and other parts of the world tend to follow.
We have wrestled with nomenclature, and we agree with the Economist that
the labels commonly used to categorize national economies are out of date. The
phrase "developed countries" implies that the high-income nations are at this
point the best they can be--which is clearly wrong. It's more accurate to call
them the "knowledge economies," especially when their primary source of growth
is expected to be the production, storage, processing, and distribution of
knowledge, whether as a good or as a service. The knowledge sector already
accounts for at least half of all jobs in knowledge economies. Meanwhile, what
does a developing country look like? Is it Singapore, with a per capita income
higher than that of Britain or France? Or Brazil? The Economist wants to
call these the "progressing" countries since they are moving forward in a
sustainable way. Finally, what to call those economies that are standing still
or devolving, as so many are in, say, central Africa? Shorthand labels such as
the "West" and the "North" can he equally misleading. In this book, we use
these old labels, understanding how awkwardly they fit, but knowing they are
the most widely recognized.
If economic labels are awkward, social labels are worse. We use the term
''fundamentalist'' to mean religious people who adhere to rigid, inflexible
interpretations of scripture that may have been codified a thousand years ago,
or only yesterday. On the other haled, Western individualism does not mean
anarchy. It has long been understood in the West that individual duties to the
community are what ensure individual rights.
Finally, we are not ideologues. We simply hold the straightforward Universal
Declaration of Human Rights, adopted in 1948 by the United Nations, as the mark
against which women everywhere can measure their achievements.