Working Papers of the Model Comparison Seminar

Special Issue of the Journal of Economic and Social Measurement (forthcoming). Macroeconomic Models and Changes in Measurement Concepts: An Overview by Charles G. Renfro, Alphametrics Corp., July 1998.

Abstract: This paper introduces the latest report of the Seminar on Model Comparisons, being a set of articles that describe subsequent effects on representative US macroeconometric models of the most recent benchmark revisions in the US National Income and Product Accounts.

Accompanying Papers:
Chain-Type Data and Macro Model Properties: the DRI/McGraw-Hill Experience, by Mark J. Lasky, DRI/McGraw-Hill, July 1998.
The WEFA U.S. Macro Model With Chain-Weighted GDP, by Daniel Bachman, Peter Jaquette, Kurt Karl, and Pasquale Rocco, WEFA, Inc., February, 1998.
Price Determination in the Indiana Econometric Model of the U.S., by Willard E. Witte and R. Jeffery Green, Indiana University, February 1998. Figures which accompany this paper.

Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States by Ray C. Fair, Yale University, March 1997. (82K)
Abstract: The results in this paper reject, using U.S. data, the dynamics implied by the standard (NAIRU) view of the long-run relationship between unemployment and inflation. An alternative way of thinking about this relationship is suggested. Presented at the Seminar meeting in New York City on April 25, 1997.

Testing the Standard View of the Long-Run Unemployment-Inflation Relationship by Ray C. Fair, Yale University, April 1996. (134K)
Abstract: The results in this paper, based on estimating and testing price equations for 30 countries, do not support the standard view of the long-run relationship between unemployment and inflation. They overwhelmingly reject the dynamic implied by the standard view.

Zero Inflation in Five Years: Simulations with MQEM by E. Philip Howrey, University of Michigan, June 1990. (44K)
Abstract: Responding to recent suggestions favoring a monetary policy rule of zero inflation, this paper uses the Michigan Quarterly Econometric Model to simulate the impact of restrictive monetary policy on output, employment, and the rate of price inflation. Presented at the Seminar Meeting in Boston, MA on June 5, 1990.

What Economic Forecasters Really Do by Daniel Bachman, The WEFA Group, Eddystone, PA. (210K)
Abstract: Academic critics of economic forecasters generally base their criticisms on the methodological shortcomings of the techniques used by business economists. In truth, these apparent problems represent profound wisdom about the nature of economic knowledge that is recognized by business economists and the users of their services.

ASPEN: A Microsimulation Model of the Economy by N. Basu, R.J. Pryor, and T. Quint, Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM. (240K)
Abstract: This report presents ASPEN, a new agent-based microeconomic simulation model of the US economy being developed at Sandia National Laboratories. The model is notable because it allows a large number of individual economic agents to be modeled at a high level of detail and with great degree of freedom.