EC474 - Seminar in Economic Demography
Fall 2005
Professor Philip H. Brown
website: http://www.colby.edu/economics/faculty/phbrown/ec474/index.html

Meeting Times: Tuesday and Thursday 2:30 - 3:45
Classroom: Tuesdays: Miller 319 and Thursdays: Davis Classroom, except as noted
Office: Miller 238 (859-5246)

Office Hours: Wednesday 9:00-10:00am and Wednesday 2:00pm-4:00pm. Open door policy at all other times. Appointments welcome.

Course Description
Economic demography is the analysis of the economic forces that influence population and the demographic factors that affect economic outcomes. Tools include microeconomic theory, demographic theory, and econometrics. In Fall 2005, this course will focus demographic change in China, Japan, and South Africa. Topics for study include:

• poverty and inequality
• the economics of fertility and mortality
• marriage and fertility
• population policy
• the micro- and macroeconomic implications of HIV
• economics of education
• intrahousehold allocation
• social security

In this class, students will read and critique a number of recent studies undertaken by demographers and economists. Students will also undertake and present their own empirical analyses in economic demography using microdata from household surveys. A significant portion of the class is thus dedicated to learning Stata, a powerful tool for statistical analysis. In keeping with the spirit of seminars, regular classes will follow a traditional conference format with a formal presentation, comments provided by an assigned discussant, and general discussion to follow.

About Stata
Stata is a popular analysis tool among research economists, econometricians, demographers, and other social scientists. Features that contribute to Stata's appeal include its ease of use, its inclusion of cutting-edge econometric techniques, its speed, its thorough documentation, and its adaptability for countless applications in the social sciences.

Stata version 8 will be available to you in the Davis Classroom and in the Economics Computer Lab. Students who are interested in learning more about Stata or in purchasing personal copies of Stata may wish to visit the Stata website.

Data
The survey microdata for the Stata labs are drawn from the following sources:

• China Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (Zeng, Y., Vaupel, J.W., Xiao, Z., and Liu, Y., 2000)
• National Survey of the Japanese Elderly (Liang, J. and Maeda, D, 1990)
• South Africa Living Standards Survey (Southern African Labour and Development Research Unit and The World Bank, 1993)
• Current Population Survey (US Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2000)
• Other sources as needed

You will be provided with a CD-ROM containing the required data. You may use any of these data sets for your own research in this class. However, some of these data are proprietary, so they may not be used for other projects without obtaining permission. Please see me for details. Codebooks and survey forms are also included on your data CD.

Required Readings
The readings for this course are drawn primarily from articles, some of which are as-yet unpublished. Some are available via econlit while others have been scanned and placed on electronic reserve. All of the articles may be accessed via the links below. There are also two required publications from the Population Reference Bureau. A full bibliography is given at the end of the syllabus.

• McFalls, J.A. Jr. (2003). Population: A Lively Introduction, 4th ed. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.
• O'Neill, B. and Balk, D. (2001). World Population Futures. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.

You are also expected to follow current events related to population and economic aspects of population. The following are among the best sources for such news: The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Economist. The U.S. Department of Census, the Population Reference Bureau, and the United Nations Population Fund also maintain websites with recent demographic news.

Prerequisites
Senior standing as an economics major is required. I will further assume that all students are comfortable with the material and techniques studies in Microeconomic Theory (EC 223) and Econometrics (EC 393). Students who lack this background must receive permission from the instructor and should plan on allocating additional time to the coursework.

Evaluation
Your grade will be a weighted average of scores received on presenting and formally discussing assigned readings, completing Stata lab assignments, and writing original research in economic demography. There are no examinations. Participation in class discussions is also expected; in cases where a student is on the margin between two final grades, consistent and constructive class participation may make a positive contribution toward his or her final grade.

• Assigned Readings
  An important objective of this seminar is to give students practice in reading and evaluating research in economic demography. Following a traditional conference format, classes will consist of a 25-minute summary of the assigned paper, a 10-minute criticism of the article, and 40 minutes of general discussion. Each week, one student will formally present the article and one student will formally discuss it. I will lead the general discussion based on comments from written responses to the weekly readings.
  
  Students will be assigned to present one article or two discuss articles over the course of the semester.

Formal Presentation of a Journal Article (10%)
Seven students will be responsible for formally presenting an assigned article in class. Presentation dates will be assigned on September 13. Each presentation has a strict time limit of 25 minutes, during which time the presenter(s) should address the following questions:

• What problem/question is being addressed?
• Why is this problem/question important? Is it of policy importance? Does it solve a puzzle in the discipline? Are new methodologies being used to derive solutions/answers? That is, how does this paper contribute to the economic literature?
• What is the central hypothesis? How is the hypothesis being tested?
• What data are being used to address the problem/question? Describe them.
• What are the paper's main results? Compare the results to those found in other studies.
• What conclusions may be derived? What are the main policy implications?


Formal Discussion of a Journal Articles (10%)
Four students will be responsible for formally discussing two assigned articles in class. Discussion dates will be assigned on September 13. Each discussion has a strict time limit of 10 minutes, during which time the discussant(s) should address the following questions:

• What is the central problem/question being addressed? What is the central hypothesis? How is the hypothesis tested? What are the main findings? What are the major contributions of the article?
• Are there any limitations in the following?
  • data
  • methodology
  • data analysis
  • policy implications and conclusion
• How could the article be improved? If appropriate, re-do the analysis with corrected results.
• May the results be generalized to other settings ?


Written Response to Journal Articles (15% total)
The remaining 40 minutes of each class is reserved for general class discussion of the assigned articles. The discussion will revolve around questions and insights raised by students in short written responses to each article.

This 2-page response is required of all students except for the presenter and discussant. It should address the same questions described under "Formal Discussion of Articles". I will be looking for evidence that you carefully internalized the reading and understand the implications of the methodologies and conclusions.

The written response is due at my office via hardcopy each Monday before 8:00am..

Grading metric: 0, check-, check, check+
Written responses that are up to 24 hours late will be penalized by one grade. After 8:00am on Tuesday, written responses will not receive credit.

• Stata Lab Assignments (25% total):
  Students are responsible for completing a Stata lab assignment each week. The lab assignments are based closely on the articles discussed on Tuesday and on the Stata techniques demonstrated each Thursday. The lab assignments are designed to strengthen your empirical research abilities by providing hands-on experience with data analysis.
  
  The Stata lab assignments are due in class each Tuesday.
  
  Grading metric: 0, check-, check, check+
  Stata lab assignments that are up to 24 hours late will be penalized by one grade. After 2:30pm on Wednesday, Stata lab assignments will not receive credit.

• Original Research Paper
  You are responsible for writing and presenting an original analytical research paper using data from household surveys. You are encouraged to focus on questions related to economic demography topics discussed in class. You should feel free to be creative, however, taking advantage of the wide variety of variables that are included in household surveys. The data analysis should be undertaken in Stata and the paper should include carefully constructed figures and tables that provide support for your thesis. The papers covered in class provide excellent examples of empirical research undertaken by economists and demographers; you should consider using them as a model.
  
  Note that this course may be counted toward the African Studies minor only if the original research paper focuses on Africa. Similarly, students who wish to receive credit toward a major or minor in East Asian Studies must complete an original research paper focusing on East Asia.
  
  There are four steps in completing the research paper:
  
  • Research Proposal (5%): October 13
    The research proposal is a detailed plan for your original research paper. The proposal should begin by clearly identifying a problem or question and explaining why the problem/question is important. Indicate the data set that you will use in your analysis and describe the key variables. It may be advantageous to include tables or figures to explain the relationships between variables. Finally, explain the econometric model that you will use and identify potential difficulties in the analysis. Make a 15-minute appointment to discuss your research proposal with me on October 14.
    
  • Short Research Presentation: October 27 (5%)
    You will give a 10 minute presentation to the other seminar participants. During this presentation, you will introduce your research question, describe why the topic is of economic interest and how the answer will contribute to the literature, and to identify the model and variables that you will use in the analysis. Present results obtained thus far in your project. The objective of this session will be to elicit early feedback on your project from classmates.
    
  • Student Research Conference: November 29 and December 1
    During the student research conference, you will present your original research paper to an audience comprised of seminar participants and invited guests. You will also provide formal comments for one conference presentation.
    
    • Formal Presentation of Original Research Paper (5%)
      The 25-minute presentation will follow the format described under "Formal Presentation of Articles" above.
      
    • Formal Discussion of Original Research Paper (5%)
      On the day that you are not assigned to present your original research paper, you will formally discuss a classmate's original research paper. The 10-minute presentation will follow the format outlined under "Formal Discussion of Articles" above. You will also provide written comments to the presenter and to me at the time of the discussion. These comments generated during the seminar are intended to serve as the basis for paper revisions.

    Grading metric: 0, check-, check, check+
    You must provide both your discussant and me with a hardcopy of your original research paper no later than 8:00am on November 28.

  • Original Research Paper (30%): December 8
    Final revisions of the original research paper are due at the beginning of class.
    
    Click here for more specific guidelines for writing the research paper.
    
    Click here for the metric I will use to grade the research papers.

Summary of Assignments and Due Dates

Academic Honesty
You are expected to adhere to Colby's policies on academic honesty. In accordance with these policies, students who plagiarize or cheat will be dismissed from the class with an F. Any such incidents will be reported to the Dean of Students and may result in suspension or expulsion.

Contact Information
E-mail is the most reliable way of contacting me, and I will do my best to respond to all e-mail within 24 hours. In your e-mail, please include your telephone number so I may call if a conversation is more conducive to answering questions. If you need immediate attention, you may also call my office phone (859-5246) or my home phone (872-2599). Barring an emergency, please don't call before 8:00am or after 10:00pm.

Errata
1. A special session of class will be held over lunch on Friday, October 21 in Dana.

2. You are invited to a class dinner at my home on November 10 at 6:00pm. Following dinner, I will screen the alarming demographic thriller Soylent Green.

Course Outline

* You are also responsible for other readings distributed in class.

References

texts:

Becker, G.S. (1992). "Nobel Lecture: The Economic Way of Looking at Behavior." Journal of Political Economy. 101(3): 385-409.

Behrman, J.R. and Oliver, R. (2000). "Basic Economic Models and Econometric Tools." In Grosh, M. and Glewwe, P., eds, Designing Household Survey Questionnaires for Developing Countries, vol 2. Washington, D.C.: The World Bank, pp. 365-389.

Booysen, F. le R. (2003). "HIV/AIDS and Poverty Dynamics." Working Paper 01/03, University of the Free State.

Brown, P.H. (2003). "Dowry and Intrahousehold Bargaining: Evidence from China." Working Paper no. 608, William Davidson Institute.

Case, A. and Deaton, A. (1998). "Large Cash Transfers to the Elderly in South Africa." Economic Journal. 108(September): 1330-1361.

Edwards, L.N. and Pasquale, M.K. (2003). "Women's Higher Education in Japan: Family Background, Economic Factors, and the Equal Employment Opportunity Law." Journal of Japanese and International Economies. 17(1): 1-32.

Liu, G.G., Wu, Xiaodong, Peng, C., and Fu, A.Z. (2003). "Urbanization and Health Care in Rural China." Contemporary Economic Policy." 21(1): 11-24.

McFalls, J.A. Jr. (2003). Population: A Lively Introduction, 4th ed. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.

Moultrie, T.A. and Timaeus, I.M. (2001). "Fertility and Living Arrangements in South Africa." Journal of Southern African Studies. 27(2): 207-223.

O'Neill, B. and Balk, D. (2001). World Population Futures. Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau.

Retherford, R.D., Ogawa, N., and Matsukura, R. (2001). "Late Marriage and Less Marriage in Japan." Population and Development Review. 21(1): 65-102.

Yang, T.Y. and Chen, D. (2004). "Transformations in China's Population Policies and Demographic Structure." Pacific Economic Review. 9(3): 269-290.

film:

Soylent Green. (1973). Fleischer, R. dir. Warner Home Video. 97 min. Videocassette.